The 2023 NFL regular season is just a week away. Can you believe it? If you haven't locked in your NFL future bets, it's about time you did that. This week at CBS Sports, we are going to be giving you our official staff predictions on a variety of different topics.
This year, I asked each of our CBS Sports NFL staffers to give me two best Over/Under win total bets. Before we get started, here's the rundown on the panel: Senior NFL writersPete PriscoandWill Brinson, plus CBS Sports editors Brett Anderson,Joel MagaraciandEric Kernishalong with writersJohn Breech,Ryan Wilson,Jordan Dajani,Jared Dubin,Josh Edwards,Tyler Sullivan,Bryan DeArdo,Cody Benjamin,Garrett PodellandJeff Kerr.
We will list every win total for context, but not all teams will have a "best bet." Let's go ahead and jump in.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
Arizona Cardinals
- Over 4.5 (+130)| Under 4.5 (-160)
Wilson: Under 4.5. So here's the deal: The Cardinals have two first-round picks in 2024, their own and the Texans (Houston traded up with Arizona to get Will Anderson Jr. in '23). They also released veteran quarterback Colt McCoy before the season, which means they're currently rolling with journeyman-who-they-just-traded-for Joshua Dobbs, and rookie fifth-rounder Clayton Tune because Kyler Murray will be sidelined for at least the first month of the season. Arizona plays in a tough division and the early part of their schedule is brutal. They'll have a chance to steal some wins in November, but getting to five will require a lot of work and a good bit of luck.
DeArdo: Under 4.5. Remember "Tank for Tua?" Well, the Cardinals' mantra for 2023 may as well be "Careening for Caleb," as in USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Arizona doesn't even have a starting quarterback right now, so it's a safe bet that the 2023 season will be largely focused on securing the No. 1 overall pick.
Podell: Under 4.5. Please, this roster isn't winning five games. It's unclear when Kyler Murray will play this season, if he will at all, and Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker might be their only defensive starter that I could guarantee would also start on at least three other NFL teams.
Atlanta Falcons
- Over 8.5 (-140) | Under 8.5 (+120)
Kernish: Over 8.5. The Falcons should be even better in Year 2 with Desmond Ridder under center, thanks to their slew of dangerous weapons on offense. Being in a wide-open NFC South should only help.
Brinson: Over 8.5. I got on board the Atlanta bandwagon before anyone else so I'm not backing off even though this number has climbed significantly over the course of the summer. Desmond Ridder might scare some people off but not me, especially when Bijan Robinson is added to a run-heavy offense with consistency on the offensive line and a revamped, veteran-laden defense on the other side. I think the Falcons are a sneaky bet for the most wins in the NFL (value wise) and to get the 1 seed in the NFC with their easy schedule.
Baltimore Ravens
- Over 9.5 (-180) | Under 9.5 (+150)
Dubin: Over 9.5. Like, what are we doing here? Baltimore won 10 games last year despite Lamar Jackson missing a third of the season. The Ravens added firepower on offense and should modernize things under Todd Monken.
Buffalo Bills
- Over 10.5 (-145) | Under 10.5 (+125)
Dubin: Over 10.5. The books gave us the Chiefs at over/under 10.5 wins last year and that was pretty dumb. This is almost as dumb. The Bills have won 13, 11, and 13 games over the past three years and added talent this offseason. The chances of them going under 10.5 seem nearly non-existent.
Carolina Panthers
- Over 7.5 (+110) | Under 7.5 (-130)
No best bets
Chicago Bears
- Over 7.5 (-140) | Under 7.5 (+110)
Edwards: Under 7.5. Chicago has not upgraded its roster enough to justify a five-win improvement. They play the NFC South and AFC West this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Over 11.5 (+110) | Under 11.5 (-140)
Anderson: Under 11.5. The Bengals are one of the most talented teams in the league. But they also play six games against tough divisional opponents in the Ravens, Browns and Steelers, and they'll face the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Jags, Seahawks and Vikings in a first-place schedule. There are already questions about Joe Burrow's health. They could win the division at 11-6 and this still goes Under.
Cleveland Browns
- Over 9.5 (+110)| Under 9.5 (-130)
No best bets
Dallas Cowboys
- Over 10 (-150)| Under 10 (+126)
No best bets
Denver Broncos
- Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Edwards: Under 8.5. Denver plays the AFC East and NFC North this season. There are not a lot of free wins on the board and a Russell Wilson rebound can not be counted upon.
Detroit Lions
- Over 9.5 (-130) | Under 9.5 (+100)
No best bets
Green Bay Packers
- Over 7.5 (-140) | Under 7.5 (+120)
Anderson: Over 7.5. Green Bay has about the same odds to win the division and Super Bowl as the Bears, and longer odds than the Lions and Vikings. Why? Because they lost Aaron Rodgers. But let's be honest: Rodgers wasn't even that good last season. The Packers have the best D in the division, a good O-line, two good RBs, two talented young WRs and a first-round QB who's looked great when he has played. They can finish below .500 at 8-9 and still hit the Over.
Podell: Over 7.5. Even though Jordan Love has only thrown 83 passes in his career since being selected 26th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, he displayed plenty of growth in 2022. He completed six of his nine passes when he came off the bench in Week 12 of the 2022 season on "Sunday Night Football" while on the road at Philadelphia Eagles for 113 yards, including a 63-yard touchdown pass to Christian Watson. Love's second and final drive of the night culminated in a 33-yard field goal by kicker Mason Crosby, the final points in a 40-33 defeat. Green Bay quarterbacks coach Tom Clements, who nurtured Aaron Rodgers' career from 2006-2016, came out of retirement to coach him once again last season. He is choosing to remain on staff with the Packers in 2023 because of Love's development. The young passer will be insulated by one of the best offensive lines in football, as the Packers front five allowed a pressure on 26.6% of dropbacks, the second-fewest rate in the NFL. His defense is also full of talent with seven former first-round picks and three Pro Bowlers or All-Pros.
Houston Texans
- Over 6.5 (+125) | Under 6.5 (-150)
No best bets
Indianapolis Colts
- Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110)
No best bets
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Over 10 (+110) | Under 10 (-130)
Prisco: Over 10. The schedule is a favorable one, playing both the AFC and NFC South. But more than that, they are ready to take the big step. The offense will be explosive as Trevor Lawrence pushes for the MVP.
Magaraci: Over 10. Trevor Lawrence took off under Doug Pederson, leading the surprising Jaguars to the divisional round. With 10 games against the AFC South and NFC South on the schedule, Jacksonville is primed for a 12-win season.
Breech: Under 10. I am officially jumping off the Jaguars' hype train and it's mostly because their schedule is brutal. This team plays the Chiefs, 49ers and Bills, plus the ENTIRE AFC North. They might go 0-7 in those games. The Jags could certainly hit 10 wins if everything goes their way, and if that happens, I'll take the push, but I don't think it's going to happen.
Kerr: Over 10. Trevor Lawrence will evolve into a top five quarterback with a monster season, as the offense can be one of the best in the NFL. It helps the AFC South has two rebuilding teams, so that may lead to four wins. Some questions on the offensive line, but Doug Pederson coached teams in Year 2 typically fare very well.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Over 11.5 (-130) | Under 11.5 (+110)
Brinson: Over 11.5. Andy Reid has been with the Chiefs since 2013 and just once in that time span has he failed to hit the over on his preseason Las Vegas win total. That season Vegas set the number at an even 12 wins and the Chiefs won 12 games. This isn't chasing, it's not some hot shooter fallacy, it's simply backing Big Red and Patrick Mahomes as the most bankable bet in terms of win totals.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Over 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-130)
No best bets
Los Angeles Chargers
- Over 9.5 (-140) | Under 9.5 (+120)
No best bets
Los Angeles Rams
- Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-125)
No best bets
Miami Dolphins
- Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Benjamin: Under 9.5. They've got speed for days, and we'll never not respect Mike McDaniel for his 49ers-esque innovations. But the QB position is a monumental concern with little insurance behind the injury-riddled Tua Tagovailoa, and durability issues have already plagued other key spots as well. The Bills are contenders. The Jets should be. Only the sluggish Patriots resemble something of a pushover in the AFC East, and even that's a stretch.
Kernish: Over 9.5. Tua Tagovailoa enters the 2023 season healthy and stronger than ever as he tries to put head injuries in the rear-view mirror. The potent offense fueled by Tua,Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will propel the team to several wins, and Miami's revamped defense under new DC Vic Fangio should help keep them in games. Yes, the AFC East is tough, but the Jets, Bills and Patriots will have to earn their victories against Miami, which can win at least half of these divisional games. If Tua and Tyreek can get through the season fairly unscathed, I expect at least 10 wins for Miami as it hunts for a second straight playoff berth.
Minnesota Vikings
- Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Dajani: Over 8.5.Kevin O'Connell went 13-4 in his first season as head coach, but the Vikings did set anNFLrecord with 11 one-score wins. I think everyone is expecting the Vikings to take a step backwards record-wise, but why is Vegas expecting them to go from 13-4 to 8-9 or worse with Aaron Rodgers out of the division?
Magaraci: Over 8.5. The Vikings won 13 games last season with smoke and mirrors. That won't happen again in 2023, but Kirk Cousins will put up huge numbers in his potential walk year and that will be enough for 9 or 10 wins.
New England Patriots
- Over 7.5 (+115) | Under 7.5 (-135)
Breech: Over 7.5. Bill Belichick had a former DEFENSIVE coordinator calling his offensive plays last season and the Patriots still somehow managed to win eight games. With an actual offensive mind calling plays this year in Bill O'Brien, I feel like the Patriots can easily get to eight wins, if not more.
New Orleans Saints
- Over 9.5 (+100)| Under 9.5 (-120)
Sullivan: Over 9.5. New Orleans will be much improved with Derek Carr under center and Chris Olave ready to burst onto the scene in Year 2. Not only that, but the Saints quietly had a defense that ranked inside the top 10 in DVOA a season ago. When you combine all that with one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2023, I can see New Orleans being the 2023 version of the 2022 Vikings, who went 13-4 thanks to a soft schedule.
New York Giants
- Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Benjamin: Over 7.5. The Eagles and Cowboys might be two of the best teams in the NFC, which doesn't leave a lot of room for victory in the East, where the Sam Howell show is also about to get underway. But if Brian Daboll could propel last year's Giants lineup to the postseason, it's hard to think he can't at least taste wild-card contention again. There are lots of "ifs" with their key additions (i.e.Darren Waller), but they're a feisty club regardless.
Wilson: Over 7.5. Brian Daboll convinced me a season ago that he's one of the best coaches in the NFL. He got the most out of Daniel Jones and that offense when a lot of folks thought it was impossible. The team then spent money this offseason to build around Jones, and while the Eagles are the favorites, New York is a completely different team that it was even 12 months ago. The biggest issues for the first time in the Daniel Jones era ... isn't about Daniel Jones; it's about how the two rookie cornerbacks will play. If the preseason is any guide, they'll be better than advertised. I think the Giants are the second-best team in the NFC East and they could give the Eagles a run for the top spot.
New York Jets
- Over 9.5 (-125) | Under 9.5 (+105)
No best bets
Philadelphia Eagles
- Over 11.5 (+110)| Under 11.5 (-130)
No best bets
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
DeArdo: Over 9. This is a no-brainer for me. The Steelers won nine games last year with a tougher schedule and a less-talented roster than the one they have this season. Barring a significant injury to Kenny Picket and/or T.J. Watt, the Steelers are a double-digit win team.
San Francisco 49ers
- Over 10.5 (-160) | Under 10.5 (+140)
No best bets
Seattle Seahawks
- Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Sullivan: Over 9. Seattle doubled down with Geno Smith this offseason, giving him a contract extension and bringing aboard more weapons like Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With that in mind, I expect them to be one of the better offenses in the league in 2023. They also have one of the easier schedules this year on top of playing in a weaker NFC.
Dajani: Over 9.I really like this bet, especially at plus money. The Seahawks won nine games last year despite many believing they would be the worst team in the league. They have plenty of young talent at wide receiver, running back and on the offensive line, a pretty decent quarterback and then a defense that I believe is going to be much improved. Think about what they added: Bobby Wagner, Derick Hall, Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love. Why is the Over plus money?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Over 6.5 (+120) | Under 6.5 (-140)
No best bets
Tennessee Titans
- Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
No best bets
Washington Commanders
- Over 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-130)
Prisco: Over 6.5. This is based on my belief that Sam Howell will be a good quarterback. They also have a ton of talent on defense and watch out as Chase Young bounces back with a big season. This is a playoff team.
Kerr: Over 6.5. This team is a lot better than people think, starting with a defense that can get after the quarterback and a secondary that's sneaky good. Sure they play in the NFC East, but they'll win more than six games if Sam Howell takes care of the football.
