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As the MLB regular season takes a turn for the final stretch, we'll take a moment to analyze where the 10 Largest Free Agent Contracts from this past Winter/Spring land in terms of value and production. Spoiler: Things haven't gone particularly well.
Aaron Judge (OF, Yankees)
9 years, $360,000,000
The Yankees signed Judge through the 2031 season, fully guaranteed, and if not for a freakish toe injury that derailed the middle of his 2023 campaign, would have already paid back huge dividends on it. Judge still carries an OPS north of 1, and a WAR north of 3 in just 64 games to date, and the power numbers are as impressive as ever to go along with it. He remains a cornerstone player for the Yankees to (re)build around going forward.
Postseason Status: Unlikely (6.2% according to FanGraphs)
Trea Turner (SS, Phillies)
11 years, $300,000,000
Even a late season heat up won’t salvage a down year for Turner, who is trending toward career lows in many areas of production for 2023. Philly will be seeking the 4.9 WAR player Turner was in 2022 for the next 10 seasons ($272M)
Postseason Status: Likely (83.8% according to FanGraphs)
Xander Bogaerts (SS, Padres)
11 years, $280,000,000
Bogaerts’ move to San Diego was a bit of a surprise, and he hasn’t exactly rewarded them for their spending spree. His line drive and batted ball percentages are at career lows as it’s clear his approach has been to look more opposite field in a lineup that can do everything (when it’s right). This simply might be a case of ‘new team, new scenario”, that improves mightily in Year 2. With $250M remaining over 10 years, San Diego is certainly banking on that.
Postseason Status: Unlikely (22% according to FanGraphs)
Carlos Correa (SS, Twins)
6 years, $200,000,000
Correa opted out of his contract following a .291/.366/.467/.834 2022 where he compiled a 5.5 WAR for his efforts. Let’s just say 2023 has been a different story. The 28-year-old currently carries a career low .231 batting average and a career low .306 on base percentage - despite fairly consistent power numbers based on his past few seasons (30 2B, 20+ HR pace currently). The Twins are succeeding despite his lack of overall consistency, and it might something they have to live with based on what we know about Correa medically speaking. Contractually we’re talking about at least $164M over the next 5 seasons, with 4 vesting options based on availability and production thereafter.
Postseason Status: Likely (90.8% according to FanGraphs)
Jacob deGrom (SP, Rangers)
5 years, $185,000,000
Unfortunately for everyone involved here, deGrom’s injury concerns became a reality after just 6 starts in Texas. He underwent successful Tommy John surgery on June 18th, and his timetable to return is currently unknown - especially based on his past issues. There’s another $155M remaining on this contract through 2027.
Postseason Status: Likely (91.5% according to FanGraphs)
Dansby Swanson (SS, Cubs)
7 years, $177,000,000
The batting average has dipped a little bit, but everything else about Swanson’s first season in Chicago screams “expected”, if not slightly more than. He appears to have filled the exact hole he was brought in to fill: veteran player at a position of importance beginning the process of turning a young team into a contender. The Cubs have shown flashes of that this season, and have a chance to sneak into October baseball still.
Postseason Status: Possibly (54% according to FanGraphs)
Carlos Rodon (SP, Yankees)
6 years, $162,000,000
When this contract was announced, the collective response was that the number seemed “low” for one of the better starting pitcher options on the open market. Many pointed to injury history as one of the factors seemingly built into this deal, and boy did that pan out quickly. Rodon missed 100 days due to an arm injury, and finds himself back on the IL with a hamstring pull currently. Rodon was able to put together really strong back-to-back campaigns in 2021 & 2022, so the Yankees are certainly banking on a return to form for the remaining 5 years, $135M.
Postseason Status: Unlikely (6.2% according to FanGraphs)
Brandon Nimmo (OF, Mets)
8 years, $162,000,000
Despite the “house is burning down” screams surrounding the Mets’ organization as a whole, Nimmo is actually producing at typical Nimmo production for the 2023 campaign. This is simply going to be a case of a good player being overpaid. The Mets are currently on the hook for another $141.75M through 2030.
Postseason Status: Unlikely (0.8% according to FanGraphs)
Edwin Diaz (RP, Mets)
5 years, $102,000,000
Diaz tore a tendon in his right knee at the World Baseball Classic, prior to the start of the 2023 season. It was a sign of things to come for the Mets, who are nearing elimination from the postseason, despite an historic payroll. Diaz is guaranteed another $78.25MM through 2027, though he holds a player opt-out after 2025 (unlikely).
Postseason Status: Unlikely (0.8% according to FanGraphs)
Willson Contreras (C, Cardinals)
5 years, $87,500,000
A lot of the Cardinals’ 2023 season has been uncomfortable to watch, but maybe nothing more so than the phase where newly signed Contreras - heir to the great Yadier Molina - was publicly dismissed from his catching duties for a variety of reasons (none good). He’s caught 70 games to date, and his fielding numbers resemble the majority of his career numbers for the most part, so it appears for now that we’re onward and upward, but don’t be surprised if we hear St. Louis shopping the 31-year-old this winter. Contractually, Contreras carries $72.5M over the next 4 seasons. The Cardinals will most certainly be eating a large portion of this to trade him.
Postseason Status: Unlikely (0.4% according to FanGraphs)
