Way-too-early 12-team College Football Playoff projections (2024)

Even when Nick Saban was at the helm of the Crimson Tide program, Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs had an established presence at the top of the college football landscape. Under the new format, the top-four spots in the CFP rankings belong to the highest-ranked conference champions. Georgia was looking to win a third-consecutive national championship in 2023, but missed the playoffs altogether after losing to Alabama in the SEC championship. In 2024, it seems like the door has re-opened for Smart and the Bulldogs to make a run for it all.

Last season the Michigan Wolverines won the Big Ten and went on to win the national championship. That being said, it feels as if the conference belongs to Ohio State. The Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies join, and perhaps the Ducks have a shot at making a push for a conference title. However, picking a newcomer over the Ohio State Buckeyes wouldn’t sit well with myself or many others.

Florida State Seminoles fans, rejoice. After failing to make the CFP in a controversial way in 2023, the committee has their hands tied with a conference championship. Mike Norvell has continued to work wonders with this program and despite a lot of roster turnover, his recruiting and coaching abilities should keep Florida State near the top of college football. With limited competition in the ACC in 2024, I fully expect the Seminoles to participate in the expanded playoffs.

The Kansas State Wildcats in the College Football Playoffs? Yes! The new CFP format rewards conference champions with an automatic bid and a first-round BYE, assuming they are among the four-highest champions. Kansas State won the Big 12 just two years ago and with the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners out of the conference, there appears to be an opening at the top. With a few new additions to the conference, it won’t be an easy ride for the Wildcats, but if they can get through the Utah Utes, who appear to be the biggest threats to a Big 12 championship run, I have faith in what head coach Chris Klieman is building.

The Oregon Ducks will be joining the Big Ten and should immediately be considered contenders to win the conference. In this projection, I believe they fall just short. The new CFP format, however, still offers head coach Dan Lanning and his team an opportunity to compete for a national title. Though they miss out on the first-round BYE, they get a shot in the playoffs.

The Texas Longhorns under Steve Sarkisian have been quite a force at the national level. In 2023, the program made the College Football Playoffs, but lost to Washington in the semi-finals. Now in the SEC, the team is expected to make an easy transition. With a conference many consider more competitive than the Big 12, they could boost their resume with a few key wins. Failing to win the conference results in a lower ranking than the Longhorns faithful would want. However, they still make the CFP thanks to the new format.

Lane Kiffin has led the Ole Miss rebels to some strong seasons recently, but they haven’t been able to get over the hump and make the playoffs. With a talented roster and an expanded field, all they have to do is retain the level of success they’ve had recently and they will be in contention to make the playoffs. With a new-look SEC, expect to see the Rebels make the playoffs with ease, barring a catastrophic failure.

The Utah Utes are newcomers to the Big 12 but are considered the favorites to win the conference by many. While I have Kansas State taking the conference championship, I’m a firm believe that Utah will have done more than enough to make the playoffs. How far they will go once in the CFP remains a question, but I think it would be foolish to leave them out of the preliminary projections.

Yes, Nick Saban has retired. Yes, plenty of players left via the transfer portal. However, The Alabama Crimson Tide should not be completely counted out of playoff contention. With an expanded field, a head coach who is known for winning and is fresh off of a national championship appearance and a roster that is still considered one of the most talented in the nation, Alabama is still in the mix. Though the program isn’t projected to be the top team in the SEC, look for the Crimson Tide to compete just enough to make the CFP.

Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers have not been able to sustain the success they had a few years ago when the expectations were to compete with Alabama for national championships. Now, there’s some serious in-conference competition with Florida State. While they aren’t picked to win the ACC in this projection, look for Clemson to move back up into the College Football Playoff conversation with a larger field and a strong roster in 2024.

After winning a national championship, the Michigan Wolverines suffered a handful of tough-to-swallow losses. Not only did the program lose key contributors to the 2024 NFL draft, head coach Jim Harbaugh finally made the much-anticipated move to the NFL by accepting the head coaching job of the Los Angeles Chargers. Despite these losses, Michigan can still make the College Football Playoffs by doing what other strong programs do, reloading instead of rebuilding. Though they aren’t ranked too high in this projection, they just barely make the cut.